🇧🇪 Belgium 2–1 United States 🇺🇸

2014 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €348M · value #6 · Elo #15

2–1Belgium win

value €58M · value #26 · Elo #13

Model P(result)

42.1%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.25

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1902 vs 1864

Stage

Round of 16

2014 World Cup