🇺🇾 Uruguay 2–1 Portugal 🇵🇹

2018 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €373M · value #9 · Elo #11

2–1Uruguay win

value €494M · value #8 · Elo #6

Model P(result)

33.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.56

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1952 vs 1971

Stage

Round of 16

2018 World Cup