🇩🇪 Germany 1–0 Paraguay 🇵🇾

2002 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €0M · value #12 · Elo #9

1–0Germany win

value €0M · value #17 · Elo #26

Model P(result)

63.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.65

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

190

1939 vs 1749

Stage

Round of 16

2002 World Cup