🇩🇪 Germany 1–0 United States 🇺🇸

2002 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €0M · value #12 · Elo #9

1–0Germany win

value €0M · value #31 · Elo #17

Model P(result)

52.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.93

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

109

1954 vs 1845

Stage

Quarter-final

2002 World Cup