🇦🇷 Argentina 3–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2010 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €347M · value #5 · Elo #7

3–1Argentina win

value €88M · value #16 · Elo #8

Model P(result)

50.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.98

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1987 vs 1890

Stage

Round of 16

2010 World Cup