🇳🇱 Netherlands 2–1 Mexico 🇲🇽

2014 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €208M · value #11 · Elo #5

2–1Netherlands win

value €97M · value #21 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

65.8%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.60

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

206

2102 vs 1896

Stage

Round of 16

2014 World Cup