🇭🇷 Croatia 1–1 Japan 🇯🇵

2022 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €377M · value #11 · Elo #11

1–1draw

value €154M · value #25 · Elo #21

Model P(result)

25.5%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.97

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

102

1944 vs 1842

Stage

Round of 16

2022 World Cup