🇮🇹 Italy 1–0 Australia 🇦🇺

2006 World Cup · Round of 16. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €378M · value #1 · Elo #7

1–0Italy win

value €58M · value #19 · Elo #19

Model P(result)

60.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.73

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

164

1984 vs 1820

Stage

Round of 16

2006 World Cup