🇮🇹 Italy 3–0 Ukraine 🇺🇦

2006 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €378M · value #1 · Elo #7

3–0Italy win

value €78M · value #15 · Elo #20

Model P(result)

63.4%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.66

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

187

2001 vs 1814

Stage

Quarter-final

2006 World Cup