🇷🇺 Russia 2–2 Croatia 🇭🇷

2018 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €162M · value #18 · Elo #28

2–2draw

value €364M · value #10 · Elo #14

Model P(result)

20.0%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.33

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

242

1708 vs 1950

Stage

Quarter-final

2018 World Cup