🇭🇷 Croatia 2–1 England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2018 World Cup · Semi-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €364M · value #10 · Elo #14

2–1Croatia win

value €874M · value #5 · Elo #7

Model P(result)

30.2%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.73

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

1938 vs 1983

Stage

Semi-final

2018 World Cup