🇧🇪 Belgium 2–1 Brazil 🇧🇷

2018 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €754M · value #6 · Elo #8

2–1Belgium win

value €981M · value #3 · Elo #1

Model P(result)

17.9%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

2.48

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

148

2007 vs 2155

Stage

Quarter-final

2018 World Cup