🇳🇱 Netherlands 2–1 Brazil 🇧🇷

2010 World Cup · Quarter-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €256M · value #9 · Elo #3

2–1Netherlands win

value €366M · value #4 · Elo #2

Model P(result)

29.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

1.77

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

2077 vs 2129

Stage

Quarter-final

2010 World Cup