🇳🇱 Netherlands 3–2 Uruguay 🇺🇾

2010 World Cup · Semi-final. Result scored against the Elo→Poisson model. tournament · tables

value €256M · value #9 · Elo #3

3–2Netherlands win

value €130M · value #13 · Elo #12

Model P(result)

64.3%

model probability of the observed score

Upset index

0.64

−log₂ P(observed)

Elo gap

194

2111 vs 1917

Stage

Semi-final

2010 World Cup